Every Great Business Is a Story

Starting a Business with Valuation in Mind: Why the Ending Matters from Day One

“To see things in the seed, that is genius.” – Lao Tzu

Launching a business is an act of vision, courage, and purpose. But too often, founders charge ahead focused on the next customer, the next hire, or the next product release—without asking the most important long-term question: What will this business be worth when it’s time to step away?

Thinking about valuation from the very beginning may seem like putting the cart before the horse. But like any great story, businesses are more powerful—and far more successful—when built with a compelling end in mind.

Why Stories and Startups Share the Same DNA

I love stories. Not just because they entertain or enlighten, but because they shape how we understand the world. Great stories have depth, tension, resolution, and meaning. Think of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings—a tale that resonates across generations not because of its fantasy setting, but because of its enduring narrative arc.

In business, your plan is your story. It should have characters (you, your team, your customers), setting (your industry, your niche), conflict (problems to solve, markets to capture), and, critically, a climax and resolution (growth, transition, exit, or legacy).

Failing to plan the ending is like stopping a novel at the most important moment. Imagine if Frodo and Sam made it to Mount Doom… and then Tolkien never wrote the ending. Confusion. Frustration. Lost meaning. That’s what building a business without an end goal looks like.

Business as a Story: Plot, Characters, and Climax

Let’s take a lesson from the masters of narrative. Tolkien wrote his epic with a clear understanding of how it would end. Shakespeare structured his works around clear types of resolutions: comedies ending in joy, tragedies ending in catastrophe.

Your business story will likely fall somewhere in between. It might conclude with:

But here’s the point: knowing your desired ending influences every decision you make along the way. If your dream is to sell your company in five years, your choices around product development, hiring, pricing, and investment should reflect that. If you want to build a legacy business passed to your children, that’s a different story altogether.

Valuation: The Financial Translation of Your Story’s Ending

While success can be defined in many ways, valuation is how we often measure the financial conclusion of your business journey. A strong business valuation reflects:

You don’t have to aim for a billion-dollar valuation. But you do need a number—your number—to aim for. Whether it’s $500K or $50M, that target gives your story shape and structure.

How to Predict Future Business Value

Even if you’re just starting out, you can (and should) build a valuation model. That doesn’t mean hiring an investment bank. With today’s tools—including spreadsheets, forecasting templates, and even AI—you can build a forecast grounded in reality.

Start with what you know:

From there, you can create a revenue and cost forecast, and eventually model out future profit and projected business value.

Start with Revenue: Your Hero’s Journey Begins Here

Every forecast starts with revenue. Think of this as the first chapter. Whether you’re running a product-based or service-based business, break down your offering into logical groupings.

Example: Clothing Retail Store

Example: Accounting Firm

Now add volume - How many sales per product/service per month? Extend that over 12 to 60 months and you’ve got a simple revenue model.

How Far Out Should You Forecast?

While it’s tempting to map out 10 years, in practice, a 5-year projection is more than enough to think through early growth, maturation, and transition. Stick to monthly forecasts for real insights. Yearly forecasts are fine for high-level thinking. Weekly or daily forecasting? Save that for cash flow planning or crisis management.

Monthly Example:

Understand Direct vs Indirect Costs

This isn’t an accounting class, but it’s worth understanding Direct Costs—those costs directly tied to delivering your product or service.

For a retail store, Direct Costs might include:

For a service firm, Direct Costs might include:

Model these as percentages of revenue, fixed costs per transaction, or monthly estimates. For example:

A solid understanding of costs helps predict profit—and by extension, valuation.

Don’t Forget the Overheads: Predicting Indirect Costs

While direct costs rise and fall with revenue, overheads (also called indirect or fixed costs) tend to stick around regardless of how many sales you make. These are the background expenses that keep your business running—rent, salaries, software, insurance, and utilities.

They may not be as flashy as revenue projections or inventory costs, but overheads can quietly erode your margins if you don’t plan for them early.

Common Overheads to Include in Your Forecast

You don’t need to be exact down to the dollar. But get close enough to anticipate your monthly burn rate. This helps you figure out how many sales you need just to break even—and whether your pricing model makes sense.

Tip: As your business grows, revisit overheads every 6–12 months. What starts small can quickly balloon, especially with team expansion, office upgrades, or tech stacks getting out of control.

Putting It All Together: Predictive P&L and Understanding Exit Valuation

At this point, you’ve outlined your revenue model, anticipated direct costs, and estimated your overhead. Now it’s time to combine those into a predictive profit and loss (P&L) statement—a forward-looking view of your business’s financial trajectory.

Start by forecasting your monthly revenue, subtracting your direct costs to get gross profit, and then subtracting your overhead to get net profit. This gives you a sense of how your business might scale, how long it might take to break even, and whether your financial goals are achievable with your current model.

Once you have a solid P&L forecast, the next question is: What could this business be worth at exit?

Valuation depends heavily on your business type, industry norms, and financial performance. Most small to mid-sized businesses are valued based on either revenue, profit, or cash flow. Common methods include:

Take time to research typical exit multiples for your industry. Look at comparable businesses that have sold recently, speak with brokers or advisors, and explore online marketplaces or databases to understand what buyers are willing to pay.

This reverse-engineering process—forecasting profitability and mapping it to market-based valuation multiples—gives you a tangible goalpost. It allows you to work backward from your desired outcome and make smarter decisions today that align with your ultimate business story.

Your Business is a Story. Make It Worth Reading.

“One does not simply walk into Mordor,” Boromir warns. And one does not simply stumble into a successful exit.

Building your business with a clear ending in mind—and with a focus on future valuation—will help guide your decisions, motivate your efforts, and shape the arc of your entrepreneurial journey. Whether your ending is a triumphant IPO or a peaceful handoff to the next generation, the story starts now.

Write it well.